The Weekly Flyer: Monday April 13th, 2026

ARS Private Wealth
3 hours ago
5 min read

The Markets

Sunny with a chance of rain.

Last week, news of a two-week pause in the Middle East conflict was like a sunny day. Investors celebrated and the relief rally lifted U.S. stocks higher. “The cease-fire announced on Tuesday led to the best day for the stock market in almost exactly a year,” reported Avi Salzman of Barron’s.

On Friday, though, some clouds appeared on the horizon. U.S. economic data and Middle East damage assessments gave investors pause, and the market’s advance slowed as they considered the potential impact of:

Rising inflation. The Consumer Price Index showed that prices surged from February to March. Gasoline and fuel oil prices were up 18.9 percent and 44.2 percent, respectively.

	March 2026	February 2026	January 2026	December 2025
Headline inflation	3.3%	2.4%	2.4%	2.7%
Core inflation	2.6%	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%

The good news was that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained relatively steady. “There was no doubt that the spike in gasoline prices was going to drive up price growth in March, but the latest data show the Iran war's effects on inflation were largely contained to energy, at least for now,” reported Megan Leonhardt of Barron’s.

An all-time low for consumer sentiment. Consumer optimism bottomed out in early April, falling 11 percent from month to month and 9 percent from year to year. Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu wrote:

“Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall. One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20 [percent] and is now 6 [percent] below last April. Assessments of personal finances declined about 11 [percent], with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values.”

There is a caveat. Most of the interviews for the survey’s initial monthly reading were conducted before the ceasefire announcement. If the ceasefire holds, sentiment could improve over the month.

Energy infrastructure damage assessments. With a two-week ceasefire underway, “…people are waking up to the fact that the war will cause lasting damage...Most obviously, Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz is now a fact, and something of which it is taking full advantage. Secondly, a lot of energy infrastructure in the region has been damaged since the war erupted, and some of it will take time to repair,” reported Robin Wigglesworth of the Financial Times.

Despite Friday’s retreat, major U.S. stock indices finished the week higher. In addition, yields on most maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week.

Data as of 4/10/26	1-Week	YTD	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 Index	3.6%	-0.4%	29.4%	18.4%	10.6%	12.8%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	5.0	6.6	38.7	14.6	5.4	6.7
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.3	N/A	4.4	3.4	1.7	1.7
S&P GSCI Gold Index	2.3	10.3	50.7	33.7	22.5	14.3
Bloomberg Commodity Index	-3.7	20.5	32.4	7.5	9.6	5.2

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

THERE’S A NEW TYPE OF RETIREMENT ACCOUNT AND IT’S FOR KIDS. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which passed into law last summer, created a new type of retirement account known as the “Trump account”. Here’s what you need to know:

Who is eligible?

These accounts can be opened for any child who is younger than 18-years-old and has a Social Security number. To qualify the child must be age 17 or younger for the entire calendar year in which the account is opened, reported the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR).

Who can contribute?

The U.S. Treasury will contribute $1,000 to the accounts of children born in the U.S. between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028, reported the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (CRRBC).

Additional contributions (up to $5,000 each year) can be made by:

· Parents,

· Grandparents,

· Account beneficiaries,

· A parent or child’s employer (up to $2,500 that counts toward the annual limit),

· Charitable organizations (not subject to the $5,000 limit), and

· Federal, state, and local governments (not subject to the $5,000 limit).

Are contributions taxable?

It depends on who makes the contribution. Parents, grandparents, and other individuals do not get a tax break for contributions. However, contributions made by employers or other entities are made on a pre-tax basis, according to the CRRBC.

When can the money be withdrawn?

These accounts are intended to help young Americans fund their retirements. As a result, investment choices are limited and contributions cannot be withdrawn before the beneficiary reaches age 18. At that point, the account is subject to the same contribution rules as traditional IRAs, which means the account holder will owe taxes on any distributions, reported SCFR.

How much could an account be worth at retirement?

It’s difficult to know. The account value will depend on how much is contributed and how investments perform over time. The U.S. government’s website estimates account values at various ages, assuming an average annual return of for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.The average return is about 10.6 [percent], which reflects the returns from 1957 through 2025, reported J.B. Maverick of Investopedia. Here’s what they estimate:

Contribution amount of $1,000 plus:	Account value at age 18	Account value at age 27	Account value at age 55
$0 each year	$6,000	$15,000	$243,000
$250 each year	$19,000	$51,000	$878,000
$5,000 each year	$271,000	$742,000	$13,000,000
Source: https://www.trumpaccounts.gov

Is it better to contribute to a Trump account, a Roth IRA, or a 529 plan? It all depends. While the free money available to newborns is attractive, other types of accounts may offer greater flexibility and better tax advantages, reported Abby Schultz of Barron’s.

If you would like to learn more about ways to help young Americans save and invest for the future, please get in touch.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best is now.”

– Oxford Treasury of Sayings and Quotations

Best Regards,

Alex A. Tapia, AIF ®

President & Retirement Wealth Planner

Andrew N. Oak

Executive VP - Partner

Melissa Brennan, CFP®

Financial Planner

W. Carr Burgoyne, Jr., CFP ®, CFS, AIF ®